DQ1cc, DQ2ab, DQ3CC Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

DQ1cc, DQ2ab, DQ3CC - Essay Example A probability can be defined as a numerical measure of the likelihood that a specific event will occur or not (Mann, 1995). Some of the different approaches to probability include classical probability, relative frequency concept of probability, and subjective probability. The use of probability is widely applied in the business world due to the fact that probability is a statistical method of a numerical chance of the occurrence of an event. For instance a company can use probability to determine whether to invest in a derivative instrument based on the changes of a commodity going up. For the application of probability to be valid the data inserted into the model must be up to date and accurate. For instance if a governmental agency attempts to predict the future behavior of the unemployment rate it would not be wise to use data from the 1950’s to insert into the probability model. The correct approach would be to use current unemployment data. â€Å"From principles is deri ved probability, but truth or certainty is obtained only from facts† (Stoppard, 2012). Probability can be used by individuals and managers in different scenarios. A place where probability is constantly used by players is in casinos. Casino games have different probabilities of winning. For instance the casino game that has the higher probability for the player is blackjack which offers a probability of 51% for the house and 49% for the player. Managers should use probability in their decision making process. A manager should not accept any decisions that have a probability of less than 50% of occurrence. Companies can establish decision making policies based on a minimum probability threshold. If I was choosing between two options one which had high probability and one with a low probability I would choose the option with the high probability due to the fact that chances of that option occurring are higher. The option with

The global business environment's changes Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

The global business environment's changes - Essay Example ttaining comparative advantage led to the intervention of the national governments in holding part or full stake of the oil industry in various countries (Paul, 2006). This has brought about changes in the stake holding pattern. Almost 85% of the oil reserves were held by the super-majors in 1950s and the current scenario exhibits that 90% of the oil reserves are held by the national oil companies. The worldwide economic expansion and the growth of the emerging economies have led to the increase in customer base in the automobile markets, increasing trade across the oceans and skies, increasing number of air traffic. Due to this, the demand for oil is likely to increase enormously in the next twenty years. The use of advanced technologies in oil exploration and distribution in order to meet the increasing demand has led to the decrease in the supply level of available oil reserves. Thus the major player would need to look into the possible usages of natural gas, etc as substitute sources of energy in order to meet the future demand of